NFL Week 10: Power Rankings

NFL Week 10: Power Rankings
Aaron Chou
November 11, 2020
Kansas City Chiefs team lined up running onto NFL field for Week 10 games

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

Based on Cleat Street’s EPA model, we have the Kansas City Chiefs rated as the #1 team in the NFL. On a neutral field, we expect the Kansas City Chiefs to outscore an average team by 9.5 points:

Limitations to the model

The EPA model relies on priors that put significant consideration into preseason expectations and a team’s performance the prior season. It also equally weights every game in the 2020 season - your Week 1 performance counts just as much as your Week 16 performance.

Teams that may fall victim of being inaccurately rated are teams that have had significant roster turnover, whether due to drafting a franchise quarterback, getting decimated by injuries, or free agent signings that have diverged significantly from preseason expectations:

The San Francisco 49ers (ranked 8th)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ranked 9th)

Miami Dolphins (ranked 24th)

Cincinnati Bengals (ranked 32nd)

Offense Power Rankings

These limitations may be more pronounced when you look at our rankings segmented between offense and defense. We have the Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Bengals graded as having the 19th, 23rd, and 26th offenses, respectively, which is probably too low. The Buccaneers 38-3 loss to the Saints did not help their cause:

Defense Power Rankings

Similarly, our rating of the Niners defense as the fourth best defense in the NFL based on priors is what keeps a 4-5 team that is currently out of the playoff picture in the top-10 overall. We also have the Miami Dolphins ranked as the 19th-best defense despite being in the top-5 in points allowed this season. Only two of their starters played more than 10 games for them last season, and they have seven defensive starters that were not even on the team last year:

Other Related Blog Posts

Receive our research, bets, and analysis