Here is a snapshot of Cleat Street's MLB betting model rankings as of May 19, 2021
Based on our modeling, here is where we currently have each MLB offense ranked on a per plate appearance basis, after normalizing for what an average offense is expected to produce.
To interpret this, we believe the #1 ranked offense is the New York Yankees offense, and that they should produce 74% more runs per plate appearance than the average 2021 MLB team. The #30 ranked offense is the Detroit Tigers offense, which should produce 68% less runs per plate appearance than the average 2021 MLB team.
Biggest movers since last week: New York Yankees jump from #4 to #1. New York Mets fall from #5 to #10.
We repeat this exercise for bullpens:
We believe the Chicago White Sox currently have the #1 bullpen in Major League Baseball, allowing nearly 1.3X fewer runs on a per plate appearance basis than the average bullpen, whereas the Detroit Tigers again are the bottom feeders at #30, allowing nearly 1.6X more runs on a per plate appearance basis than the average bullpen.
Biggest movers since last week: Pittsburgh Pirates (from #16 to #12) and San Francisco Giants (from #26 to #22) both jump four spots. Diamondbacks fall eight spots from #21 to #29.
Now for starting pitchers. Shown below are the ratings for the SP1 for each respective team.
We believe Gerrit Cole is the #1 pitcher in Major League Baseball when compared to every other team’s SP1. He allows 270% less runs per plate appearance than the average SP1 in 2021. Conversely, we believe Yusei Kikuchi is the worst SP1, and he is expected to allow 149% more runs on a per plate appearance than the average SP1. When Marco Gonzales returns for the Seattle Mariners, we expect Kikuchi to drop down to his normal SP2 role.
Final Power Rankings
With rankings set for each component of a team, see below what an illustrative example is for how we would holistically evaluate a team based on their SP1, bullpen, and offense:
This means that based on our modeling, Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees would be favored against any team.
Biggest movers: Toronto Blue Jays jump five spots from #18 to #13. Cleveland Indians fall eight spots from #9 to #17