Here is a snapshot of Cleat Street's MLB betting model rankings as of May 19, 2021

Offense

Based on our modeling, here is where we currently have each MLB offense ranked on a per plate appearance basis, after normalizing for what an average offense is expected to produce.

To interpret this, we believe the #1 ranked offense is the New York Yankees offense, and that they should produce 74% more runs per plate appearance than the average 2021 MLB team. The #30 ranked offense is the Detroit Tigers offense, which should produce 68% less runs per plate appearance than the average 2021 MLB team.

Biggest movers since last week: New York Yankees jump from #4 to #1. New York Mets fall from #5 to #10.

We repeat this exercise for bullpens:

We believe the Chicago White Sox currently have the #1 bullpen in Major League Baseball, allowing nearly 1.3X fewer runs on a per plate appearance basis than the average bullpen, whereas the Detroit Tigers again are the bottom feeders at #30, allowing nearly 1.6X more runs on a per plate appearance basis than the average bullpen.

Biggest movers since last week: Pittsburgh Pirates (from #16 to #12) and San Francisco Giants (from #26 to #22) both jump four spots. Diamondbacks fall eight spots from #21 to #29.

Now for starting pitchers. Shown below are the ratings for the SP1 for each respective team.

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We believe Gerrit Cole is the #1 pitcher in Major League Baseball when compared to every other team’s SP1. He allows 270% less runs per plate appearance than the average SP1 in 2021. Conversely, we believe Yusei Kikuchi is the worst SP1, and he is expected to allow 149% more runs on a per plate appearance than the average SP1. When Marco Gonzales returns for the Seattle Mariners, we expect Kikuchi to drop down to his normal SP2 role.

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Final Power Rankings

With rankings set for each component of a team, see below what an illustrative example is for how we would holistically evaluate a team based on their SP1, bullpen, and offense:

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This means that based on our modeling, Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees would be favored against any team.

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Biggest movers: Toronto Blue Jays jump five spots from #18 to #13. Cleveland Indians fall eight spots from #9 to #17