Don't Bet on Tom Brady's Next Team

Don't Bet on Tom Brady's Next Team
Cleat Street
March 17, 2020
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback, Tom Brady, throwing football during NFL game
Photo By Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Don’t Bet On Tom Brady’s Next Team

Everyone loves an interesting prop bet. But please don’t bet on which team Tom Brady will play for next.

I know it’s exciting and I know it’s fun to speculate. It also makes for great clickbait - both Action Network and ESPN have posted articles recently speculating on the odds of Tom Brady joining X team.

But what the Action Network (with a tagline “Smart betting made easy”) and ESPN neglect to tell you is that it is among the worst bets you can make.

Here’s why.

The Hold is over 30%

The Action Network referenced odds from FanDuel in their article. They provide very little analysis (with incorrect calculations of implied probabilities) and four links to FanDuel to encourage you to place a wager into a market with a >30% hold for FanDuel.

Since odds are constantly moving, I grabbed the odds for this prop from FanDuel at 7:00pm ET on March 6th.

FanDuel Futures Odds - Tom Brady's Next Team

At first glance, it’s hard to tell if this is a good or bad bet offering.

SPOILER ALERT: it’s bad. When we calculate the hold on this market it comes to 31.44%.

Clearly the Patriots are the favorite here. So why wouldn’t FanDuel simply offer up Patriots vs the Field?

For one, people love to bet on their favorite team rather than the “Field”. It’s exciting to get big odds on a long shot, and through our own biases we find ways to convince ourselves that X team "has value".

But FanDuel didn’t offer this variety of options to benefit you. They offered it to line their pockets with your money. You see, to get an equivalent hold (31.44%) on Patriots vs Field, FanDuel would have to offer Pats/Field at -155/-570. Yes, you read that correctly: -155/-570.

I could continue to trash on the Action Network for encouraging people to place such a bad bet, but I was always taught to give credit where credit’s due: FanDuel doesn’t even offer the worst odds on this prop.

We checked out the odds at several other sportsbooks offering this prop, namely Westgate (referenced by ESPN), William Hill, BetMGM and PointsBet. What we found were even more egregious offerings:

Disgusting. Giving someone $1.00 today with the expectation of receiving $0.63 in return 6 months from now is borderline criminal. Do yourself a favor and find something else to bet on.

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